Specialty Match Probability Calculator
Estimate match probability using a heuristic blend of scores, research, AOA, and match factors.
Inputs
Results
Calculated in real time as you update inputs.
Match Probability (heuristic)
90%
Strong profile; keep interviewing broadly.
Specialty baseline
85%
Research contribution
2.0%
AOA adjustment
0%
Couples match adjustment
0%
Explanation
This is a heuristic, not a validated model. Specialty baselines are rough estimates; score contributions are modest (0.25% per point above a baseline), research is capped at +8%, AOA adds +5%, and couples match subtracts 3%. Real match outcomes depend on many factors including program geography, letters, rotations, signaling, interview performance, and applicant pool.
Educational estimate only. Not official match guidance or a guarantee. Consult mentors and advisors for specialty-specific strategy.